Guests - Ava Chen, Jeff Rhodes, Rick Shafton
Watch China Watch Wednesday on YouTube
With just 13 days remaining before the November 3 election, voters are confronting questions that reach far beyond individual candidates. From China's growing influence on Western institutions to political unrest in Europe, from allegations of taxpayer misuse in Pima County to competitive elections across the United States, the central issue is increasingly one of power, accountability and the future of representative government.
Kathleen Winn believes those questions are connected. Governments acquire authority through political institutions, economic relationships and public trust. The consequences become apparent when citizens lose confidence in the people exercising that authority.
On China Watch Wednesday, Ava Chen of the New Federal State of China warned that Western governments and financial institutions have underestimated the Chinese Communist Party for decades. She argued that the consequences are increasingly visible in international commerce, political movements and institutions once considered independent.
Closer to home, Pima County Supervisor District 5 candidate Jeff Rhodes raised allegations concerning Supervisor Andres Cano's use of taxpayer funds, while questioning the county's response to violent crime, deteriorating infrastructure and economic development.
National political consultant Rick Shafton examined the competitive election landscape, the importance of issue-driven campaigns, and the possibility that several gubernatorial and congressional races could produce unexpected results.
Throughout those discussions, Winn returned to an immediate concern: dozens of Pima County residents were reporting missing early ballots or unexplained changes to their voter-registration information.
The election is approaching whether those questions have been resolved or not.
China Watch Wednesday: Ava Chen Says America Misjudged the Chinese Communist Party for Decades
Ava Chen believes the West's greatest mistake was assuming that economic engagement would eventually transform the Chinese Communist Party into a more open and cooperative political institution.
Instead, she argues, decades of investment, trade and diplomatic accommodation allowed Beijing to strengthen its economic and technological capabilities without surrendering authoritarian control.
The result is a China with enormous international influence but a population that still lacks the freedoms enjoyed in democratic countries.
Winn introduced the discussion by raising concerns about the future of China's free artificial-intelligence models.
Reports questioning their security and reliability had caught her attention.
For years, China has been portrayed as an increasingly dominant technological competitor.
But Winn wondered whether recent warnings about security risks revealed vulnerabilities beneath that image.
Chen had not read the particular article. Rather than speculate about its details, she suggested examining China's political system as the starting point for understanding its technological ambitions.
For Chen, the essential question is not whether Chinese companies can produce sophisticated technology.
It is who ultimately controls that technology and what political objectives it serves.
Senator Dave McCormick's Warning About America's China Strategy
Chen referred to remarks delivered by Pennsylvania Senator Dave McCormick at the Hudson Institute on October 16.
According to Chen, McCormick argued that American policymakers had misunderstood China's strategic intentions for approximately 25 years.
The United States evaluated Beijing according to what American leaders hoped economic engagement would accomplish.
They expected trade and investment to encourage openness, cooperation and eventually greater political freedom.
Chen believes those expectations were fundamentally mistaken.
She praised McCormick for acknowledging that American policy had misread the CCP's intentions.
His business background made the criticism particularly meaningful to her.
Before entering the Senate, McCormick held a senior leadership role at Bridgewater Associates, one of the world's best-known investment-management firms.
Chen argued that people who worked inside global financial institutions are especially important voices because they understand how Western capital helped China's economy expand.
She sees a growing recognition among business and political leaders that Beijing's long-term objectives differed from those of its Western partners.
North Korea and South Korea Demonstrate the Importance of Freedom
Chen highlighted McCormick's comparison between North Korea and South Korea.
The countries share a common historical and cultural heritage.
Their people speak the same language.
Yet their economic development and political systems have diverged dramatically.
South Korea has become a technologically advanced industrial economy.
Its companies manufacture sophisticated products, including large commercial vessels, and participate in international investment.
North Korea remains economically isolated, with severe restrictions on individual freedom and economic opportunity.
Chen said McCormick identified a decisive difference between the two systems.
Freedom.
For her, the comparison helps explain why China's technological achievements should not be confused with a free society.
A government may build enormous factories and powerful institutions while continuing to deny ordinary citizens meaningful political rights.
The economic capabilities of an authoritarian state do not eliminate the dangers created by its political structure.
Chen Says Even Communist Party Insiders Live in Fear
Winn expanded the argument by questioning whether China's leaders experience genuine freedom themselves.
Xi Jinping and his closest associates possess extraordinary authority.
But they also operate within a political environment characterized by purges, suspicion and internal power struggles.
Winn argued that people who obtain power through coercion and political intimidation may find themselves unable to trust anyone around them.
Chen agreed.
She claimed Chinese intelligence personnel often face surveillance from their own government more intense than the monitoring directed toward foreign targets.
"They watch their internal insiders even more so than they watch for the targets of espionage," Chen said.
Her point was that authoritarian power depends on controlling people whose loyalty cannot be taken for granted.
Officials may cooperate because of money, political ambition, personal vulnerability or fear.
Those relationships can become unstable.
A person who is useful today may become a threat tomorrow.
Chen believes Beijing's anxiety about internal dissent explains its efforts to monitor Chinese communities abroad, including allegations involving overseas police stations and intimidation of dissidents.
The Chinese People Are Not the Chinese Communist Party
Chen praised McCormick for distinguishing between China's population and its ruling party.
That distinction is central to the New Federal State of China's mission.
The organization opposes Communist Party rule while advocating freedom for Chinese citizens.
Chen argues that China's people have been subjected to authoritarian control rather than freely choosing the political system governing them.
"This comment is not directed at the Chinese people," Chen recalled McCormick emphasizing about his criticism of Beijing.
Winn agreed.
She compared the distinction to other countries whose populations live under oppressive governments.
Criticism of a ruling regime should not automatically become hostility toward the people living under it.
For Chen, the ultimate objective is not to punish ordinary Chinese citizens for the actions of their government.
It is to expose the institutions and political relationships that maintain Communist Party control.
Four Decades of Western Investment Strengthened Beijing, Chen Argues
Chen believes the Chinese Communist Party deliberately used international commerce to expand its influence.
She rejected the idea that Beijing embraced Western investment because it intended to become more democratic.
Instead, she argued, the party wanted access to capital, technology, markets and political relationships that would make it stronger.
"They're doing business with you because they want to capture you," Chen said.
In her interpretation, Western business leaders expected commercial relationships to produce mutual prosperity and gradual political reform.
The Communist Party pursued those relationships while maintaining its own ambitions.
Commercial Relationships Can Create Political Dependence
Chen argued that trade does not occur in a political vacuum.
Companies investing in China may develop financial interests that make them reluctant to criticize Beijing.
Law firms, investment managers, consultants and international organizations may also become dependent on commercial relationships involving Chinese institutions.
Those arrangements can create conflicts between economic incentives and political principles.
For Chen, the danger becomes especially serious when institutions influencing American public policy also maintain significant financial relationships with organizations operating under Communist Party authority.
Winn described China's international influence as a wolf in sheep's clothing.
The public presentation emphasizes commerce, development and partnership.
Chen believes the underlying political objective is control.
Those were the speakers' interpretations of Beijing's strategy rather than proof that every commercial relationship involving China is an intelligence or political operation.
Europe's Difficulties Become Part of Chen's Warning
Winn argued that European countries are experiencing the consequences of political and economic decisions that have strengthened authoritarian interests.
She connected those concerns with instability, economic uncertainty and public demonstrations across Europe.
Chen believes many Western institutions have underestimated how authoritarian governments can exploit commercial and political relationships.
She urged Americans to examine the interests behind international policy initiatives rather than treating global organizations as politically neutral.
The relevant questions, she argued, involve who provides financing, who develops policy recommendations and who benefits when governments adopt them.
Riots in France and Italy Prompt Allegations of Coordinated Political Agitation
Chen devoted considerable attention to reports of violent demonstrations in France.
According to the accounts she discussed, unrest had occurred in nearly 20 cities, with incidents involving vandalism, looting and property destruction.
She questioned whether such widespread disturbances could be explained entirely as spontaneous demonstrations organized by dissatisfied students.
In her opinion, the timing and similarities suggested a larger coordinated effort.
"This is not organic, in my opinion," Chen said.
She also referred to unrest in Milan, Italy, arguing that similarities between demonstrations in different countries deserved examination.
Chen Connects the Demonstrations to Far-Left Organizing
Chen cited social-media reporting from Natalie Winters concerning alleged connections between left-wing organizations and political demonstrations.
According to Chen's description, some organizations operating within educational environments promote Marxist, Leninist or revolutionary ideas.
She said reports had identified a group associated with France's educational system that encouraged young people to view political destruction as a legitimate revolutionary tool.
Chen could not recall the organization's precise name or initials.
She also mentioned a political figure whom the organization allegedly cited as an example of successful left-wing organizing.
Those connections were not independently established in the discussion.
Nevertheless, Chen argued that the international similarities merited further investigation.
She believes activists across different countries may share ideological instruction, organizational methods and financial support.
Winn Questions Whether Students Understand What They Are Supporting
Winn questioned why young people would destroy businesses, schools and public institutions in the name of improving society.
She compared radical political recruitment to the grooming of vulnerable children by exploitative adults.
In both situations, she argued, a person may be promised belonging, independence and a better future without understanding the consequences.
Young protesters may believe they are joining a movement that will improve their lives.
But Winn argued that destroying infrastructure does not create better educational opportunities or stronger communities.
"If what you want is more resources in a classroom, you can't do that by destroying the very classroom that you want to improve," she said.
For Winn, the behavior suggested that some participants were more interested in belonging to a movement than achieving practical reforms.
Chen agreed, describing young demonstrators as especially vulnerable to political indoctrination.
Chen Alleges a Global Communist Strategy
Chen went further, suggesting that revolutionary movements in Europe and America reflect a global struggle involving Communist Party interests.
She believes the CCP benefits from political instability in democratic countries.
In her view, organizations promoting radical social transformation can weaken Western institutions while strengthening the influence of authoritarian governments.
Her theory linked unrest in France and Italy with earlier American demonstrations, including the disturbances following George Floyd's death in 2020.
The discussion did not establish that the CCP directed or funded those separate events.
Chen's argument was an ideological and geopolitical interpretation rather than demonstrated operational coordination.
Still, she maintained that Americans should examine the philosophical similarities among revolutionary movements and ask who benefits from prolonged political instability.
Mao's Cultural Revolution Provides the Historical Parallel
Chen drew a direct comparison between contemporary political unrest and China's Cultural Revolution.
The movement, launched by Mao Zedong in 1966, continued through 1976 and devastated Chinese society.
Chen described it as a campaign Mao used to preserve his political authority when rival factions within the Communist Party were gaining influence.
She argued that Mao deliberately mobilized young people to attack established institutions.
Schools were disrupted.
Intellectuals were persecuted.
Religious and cultural sites were damaged or destroyed.
And young activists were encouraged to view traditional society as an obstacle to revolutionary progress.
Why Mao Targeted Young People
Chen emphasized that the Cultural Revolution relied heavily on students.
Many were teenagers.
Some were even younger.
She argued that young people have less experience recognizing manipulation and may be more willing to participate in confrontational movements without considering long-term consequences.
Mao's government encouraged students to identify enemies within society and challenge established authorities.
Young activists organized as Red Guards.
Chen described them as a destructive force mobilized under the language of revolutionary virtue.
The government presented its campaign as a fight against oppressive ideas and institutions.
But Chen argued that the practical objective was consolidating political power.
The Campaign Against the Four Olds
One of the Cultural Revolution's central campaigns targeted the Four Olds: old customs, old culture, old habits and old ideas.
Chen described attacks on traditional Chinese beliefs, religious institutions, monuments and cultural practices.
She argued that the campaign was designed to separate people from the institutions that gave their lives continuity and meaning.
Family traditions, religion, historical memory and social customs all became targets.
Chen believes similar rhetoric appears in contemporary Western movements that seek sweeping changes to cultural traditions.
Her comparison is philosophical rather than proof that modern European protesters are following direct instructions from Beijing.
But she argued that attacks on monuments, churches and historical identity should be examined carefully.
The Long-Term Damage Extended Beyond Property
For Chen, the Cultural Revolution's greatest consequences were not limited to destroyed buildings.
She emphasized the destruction of trust.
Intellectuals learned that questioning political authority could endanger their lives.
Families became afraid to speak openly.
Professionals and scholars were pressured to conform.
Those experiences created a culture of fear that Chen believes continues to influence Chinese society.
She argued that many Chinese citizens understand the dangers of Communist Party rule but hesitate to oppose it because of the consequences.
The result, in her assessment, is a society where political obedience can become a survival strategy.
Mao's Rule and the Human Cost of Communist Policies
Chen cited an estimate of approximately 150 million deaths under Mao, attributing the figure to research she associated with Miles Guo and access to Communist Party archives.
That extraordinary number was her stated estimate, not an independently established historical count.
Scholars have produced differing estimates of deaths associated with Mao-era famine, political campaigns and state violence, and the discussion did not provide the underlying documentation supporting Chen's figure.
Her larger argument concerned the scale of suffering associated with authoritarian policies.
She also criticized the one-child policy implemented after Mao's death.
Chen described coercive abortions, detention of family members and government pressure on women to end pregnancies.
She argued that such policies demonstrate the dangers of a state claiming authority over fundamental family decisions.
For Chen, the economic growth China later experienced does not erase the consequences of those abuses.
Chen Says Modern Political Movements Should Be Evaluated Through Their Treatment of Freedom
Chen's historical comparison led to a broader discussion of political ideology.
She believes movements that promise liberation can ultimately create more coercive forms of government.
The language may emphasize equality, prosperity or freedom from traditional institutions.
But Chen argues that the decisive question is how much power government acquires over individuals.
She described Communist ideology as dangerous not only to political liberty but also to personal dignity and the ability to maintain independent beliefs.
Winn agreed that Americans should be skeptical of political movements promising a better society through destruction.
Both believe people need meaningful attachments to family, faith, community and work.
Political Belonging Cannot Replace Personal Responsibility
Winn suggested that young people who lack purpose may be more susceptible to extremist organizations.
A movement offers identity, friendships and the sense of participating in something important.
But belonging alone does not establish that the movement's objectives are constructive.
Chen argued that families and communities should teach young people about historical experiences under authoritarian governments.
Without that knowledge, they may support policies whose consequences they do not understand.
For both women, education is essential to preserving freedom.
The New Federal State of China Seeks to Rebuild Courage Among Chinese Dissidents
Chen described the New Federal State of China's efforts to connect dissidents, researchers and professionals who oppose the Communist Party.
She credited Miles Guo with helping individuals who had become isolated by fear recognize that they were not alone.
According to Chen, many people inside China understand the problems created by authoritarian rule.
But they may feel powerless to challenge them individually.
Building relationships among dissidents can create a sense of solidarity.
Chen believes that solidarity is especially important for scholars, business leaders and other influential individuals who may possess information about government misconduct.
"They knew what's wrong and right, but they were so lived in fear," she said.
Her organization's objective is to encourage people to speak out while supporting efforts to expose the institutions maintaining Communist Party power.
America's Own Grassroots Movement Provides a Comparison
Chen compared the effort with America's Make America Great Again movement.
She described MAGA as an example of grassroots political mobilization challenging established institutions.
But she emphasized an important distinction between democratic politics and Communist Party rule.
She does not want America to become a one-party state.
Multiple political parties are necessary, she argued, because competition helps protect constitutional government.
"MAGA should not be just one party's agenda. It should be American patriots' agenda," Chen said.
Her point was that national prosperity, constitutional government and individual freedom should not belong exclusively to one political organization.
She believes people with different partisan affiliations can still oppose authoritarianism.
Chen Sees Two Competing International Visions
Chen characterized the global political struggle as a contest between institutions supporting constitutional freedom and those aligned with Beijing's authoritarian model.
She argued that international organizations, economic agreements and political movements should be examined according to which vision they advance.
In her assessment, Beijing's influence extends into debates over immigration, environmental policy, public health and international governance.
Those are sweeping allegations about political coordination that were not independently demonstrated in the discussion.
Nevertheless, Chen encouraged Americans to investigate financial and organizational relationships rather than accept public labels at face value.
Law Firms, Environmental Organizations and Allegations of CCP Influence
Chen identified an October 21 opinion article published by The Daily Wire as another development worth examining.
She attributed the piece to former Justice Department official Chad Mizelle.
According to her description, the article examined relationships involving major international law firms, environmental organizations and institutions connected to China.
Chen alleged that some law firms represented Chinese interests while also representing American companies involved in disputes touching on environmental policy.
She questioned whether those relationships created conflicts of interest.
The Environmental Law Institute Draws Scrutiny
Chen referred to an organization she identified as ELI, the Environmental Law Institute.
She alleged that an environmental research organization was working closely with Chinese institutions and sharing regulatory information.
She also referred to concerns about potential influence on judges through educational or professional relationships.
The discussion did not independently establish improper conduct by ELI, particular law firms or judges.
But Chen argued that financial and professional relationships deserve scrutiny when foreign-government interests are involved.
For her, the central question is whether American legal and regulatory institutions remain independent when organizations connected to authoritarian governments participate in their professional networks.
Chen Wants Congress to Investigate
Chen called for congressional hearings and the appointment of a special counsel to investigate alleged CCP influence within American institutions.
She argued that researchers and dissidents possess information that has not received sufficient official attention.
In her view, congressional scrutiny could reveal relationships involving government agencies, legal institutions, businesses and media organizations.
Her organization, she said, would welcome an opportunity to provide documentation.
Miles Guo's Imprisonment Becomes a Central Example of Chen's Concerns
Chen and Winn discussed Miles Guo, the Chinese businessman and dissident associated with the New Federal State of China.
Guo has faced serious criminal proceedings in the United States.
Chen argues that the proceedings against him reflect political pressure connected to Beijing.
Winn went further, describing him as a political prisoner.
"That's an injustice that hurts my heart every day," she said.
Their characterization was disputed. The discussion did not establish that Guo's prosecution resulted from CCP control of the American justice system.
Nevertheless, Chen considers his case central to the organization's mission.
Chen Describes the Use of Legal Institutions as a Political Weapon
Chen argued that authoritarian governments can pressure critics through legal disputes, financial investigations and relationships with influential institutions.
She believes Guo's experience demonstrates how those tactics can operate beyond China's borders.
Winn recalled the FBI's actions involving Guo's New York property and expressed concern about the use of federal law-enforcement powers.
She hopes his situation receives renewed attention.
Chen said the New Federal State of China continues publishing material intended to explain its allegations.
A Documentary Series Examines the Alleged Influence Network
Chen described a documentary series consisting of 74 short installments.
Each installment runs approximately one minute.
She said the series examines relationships involving American government, media, business and legal institutions.
The material was available through links pinned to the New Federal State of China's Gettr page.
Chen encouraged Americans to review the series and consider the questions it raises.
She also called on Congress to investigate allegations the organization believes remain unresolved.
Winn Connects Judicial Independence to Arizona Politics
Winn argued that concerns about politically motivated justice are relevant in Arizona.
She discussed upcoming appointments to three Arizona Supreme Court seats and emphasized the significance of the gubernatorial election.
A governor's judicial appointments can influence the state's legal direction for years.
Winn also criticized Governor Katie Hobbs over allegations involving public spending and possible pay-to-play arrangements.
She accused state officials of failing to provide sufficient accountability.
Those were political allegations made by Winn, not independently established findings of criminal misconduct.
Her larger point was that government institutions must operate according to law rather than partisan loyalty.
More Pima County Voters Report Missing Ballots and Changed Registration Information
While international affairs dominated the first portion of the discussion, Winn returned repeatedly to a more immediate problem affecting Southern Arizona.
Voters were continuing to contact her because their early ballots had not arrived.
By October 21, Winn said she had received complaints involving more than 40 families.
Some reported that ballots had been mailed according to official records but never appeared in their mailboxes.
Others reported unexpected changes to voter-registration information.
Winn said the reports were particularly frustrating because the affected residents described themselves as longtime voters whose addresses had not changed.
A Married Couple's Ballots Appear in USPS Informed Delivery
Winn read a message from a voter who regularly receives emails from USPS Informed Delivery.
The service provides images of mail expected to arrive.
According to the voter, an email showed ballots addressed to both him and his wife.
His wife's ballot arrived.
His did not.
He identified himself as a Republican and his wife as a Democrat.
The voter initially assumed the missing ballot would arrive within a few days.
After approximately a week passed, he requested a replacement through the Secretary of State's website.
The replacement eventually arrived.
Winn praised the voter for taking responsibility rather than allowing the problem to prevent participation.
The differing party affiliations raised her suspicions, but the incident did not establish that the missing delivery was politically motivated.
A Family Reports an Unfamiliar Address on Calle Oleo
Winn also read a second message involving a family whose early ballots had not arrived.
According to the account, the family checked its voter-registration records and discovered that the address had changed to an unfamiliar location on Calle Oleo.
The sender said nobody in the household had ever been associated with the address.
The family had lived at its registered location for years.
The message also alleged that notifications had been disabled.
Winn considered the report particularly serious because inaccurate registration information could interfere with ballot delivery.
She urged other voters experiencing problems to examine their records rather than assume their ballots were simply delayed.
Winn Disputes Explanations Based on Voters Moving
Winn said the Recorder's Office had suggested that some missing ballots involved people who had moved or whose records had changed.
She began asking affected voters directly whether they had relocated.
According to Winn, the people contacting her consistently said they had not moved.
She argued that this pattern deserved investigation.
The discussion did not establish the full scope of ballot-delivery problems or whether similar complaints were occurring among voters from other parties.
But Winn said the Republican Party was helping individuals request replacement ballots and report specific concerns.
Friday's Early-Ballot Request Deadline Is Critical
Winn emphasized that Friday, October 23, at 5 p.m. was the deadline she was using for early-ballot requests.
Residents whose ballots had not arrived needed to act promptly.
She encouraged voters to contact the Pima County Recorder's Office, review their registration information and request replacements when appropriate.
Early in-person voting remained another option.
Winn repeatedly urged voters not to allow unresolved administrative questions to prevent them from participating.
Election-Integrity Reporting Resources
Winn directed voters experiencing problems to the Republican National Committee's Arizona election-integrity reporting resources.
She provided the telephone number 520-900-0419.
She said the organization was collecting reports and seeking federal assistance concerning the alleged irregularities.
Residents could also contact the Recorder's Office directly for official voting assistance.
Winn said county turnout was beginning to increase, with approximately 14,000 ballots recorded during a recent period.
That was encouraging, but she argued that every eligible voter still needed a fair opportunity to participate.
Jeff Rhodes: Taxpayer-Funded Political T-Shirts Prompt Allegations Against Andres Cano
Jeff Rhodes, the Republican candidate for Pima County Supervisor District 5, raised a new allegation concerning his Democratic opponent, Supervisor Andres Cano.
Rhodes claimed Cano had used taxpayer funds to purchase 50 T-shirts for a political protest organization.
The organization was identified as Rooted in Resistance, described by Rhodes as associated with the national Indivisible movement.
Rhodes connected the group with No Kings demonstrations and other anti-Trump protests.
According to his account, the purchase was included in a larger order involving legitimate office merchandise.
The disputed T-shirts cost approximately $730.
Rhodes argued that using a government purchasing card for partisan political merchandise could violate Arizona law.
Rhodes Says the Allegation Was Referred for Investigation
Rhodes cited Arizona Revised Statutes Section 35-301(A)(1) as the provision he believed applied.
He argued that public money cannot lawfully be used for unauthorized political purposes.
Rhodes said information concerning the purchase had been referred to the Pinal County Attorney's Office for review.
He believed the alleged conduct could constitute a felony.
That was his legal assessment, not an established finding of criminal liability.
The discussion did not include a charging decision or judicial determination.
Winn said Cano had denied the accusation publicly.
She questioned the denial because Rhodes claimed to possess an invoice and images associated with the purchased shirts.
The T-Shirts Were Allegedly Added to an Otherwise Legitimate Order
Rhodes said the office had ordered jackets, polo shirts and a table covering for staff use.
He considered those items legitimate public-office purchases.
The controversy, according to Rhodes, involved adding 50 political T-shirts to that order.
He said the merchandise was purchased through Vistaprint.
Rhodes also criticized the decision to use an out-of-area company rather than a local printing business.
He argued that Tucson businesses could have provided the legitimate merchandise and potentially kept the spending within the community.
For Rhodes, the central issue was not whether $730 represented a large amount relative to the county budget.
It was whether the money was lawfully spent.
Winn Distinguishes Alleged Motives From Observable Conduct
Winn criticized what she viewed as Cano's approach to public spending.
But when Rhodes suggested the supervisor simply did not care about fiscal responsibility, she urged him to be more precise.
"We don't know if he cares or not," Winn said.
She argued that the defensible criticism concerned his decisions and apparent priorities rather than assumptions about his private intentions.
Rhodes agreed that elected officials should be evaluated according to their actions.
Rhodes Questions Other Expenses Associated With Cano's Office
Rhodes also criticized several other expenditures attributed to Cano.
He referred to an approximately $5,000 celebration attended by roughly 150 people after Cano's appointment to the Board of Supervisors.
Winn noted that the event itself had not been established as illegal.
But both questioned whether such spending demonstrated appropriate restraint.
Rhodes also described approximately $1,500 in office snacks.
Another concern involved a reported trip to Washington, D.C., during which Cano allegedly stayed in a hotel suite costing more than $800 per night.
Legal Spending Can Still Raise Ethical Questions
Rhodes distinguished between criminal allegations and spending decisions he simply considered inappropriate.
An expenditure can be legally authorized while still raising questions about judgment and fiscal priorities.
For him, the public should consider how elected officials approach taxpayer-funded travel, celebrations and office expenses.
Winn connected that argument to Proposition 425, which would expand Pima County's constitutional expenditure authority.
She argued that officials seeking significantly greater spending flexibility should demonstrate careful management of comparatively small amounts first.
District 5's Violent Crime Becomes a Central Campaign Issue
Rhodes argued that public safety is one of the most serious problems confronting Supervisor District 5.
The district includes downtown Tucson, the University of Arizona area and portions of the city's southwest side.
Rhodes said several serious crimes had occurred in a relatively short period.
He referenced seven major incidents within approximately six weeks.
Among the cases discussed were the killing of a Tucson Police Department recruit, violence outside a gay bar and the fatal beating of a woman in the Sam Hughes area.
Rhodes criticized Cano for what he viewed as an inadequate public response.
Rhodes Says Repeat Offenders Are Not Being Held Accountable
Rhodes argued that some violent crimes involved people with extensive criminal histories.
He referred to the suspect accused of killing a Tucson police recruit and injuring the officer's wife.
According to Rhodes, the suspect had previously served multiple prison terms involving several felony convictions.
Rhodes questioned how someone with that history could remain free to commit another serious offense.
He blamed what he characterized as insufficient prosecution and weak criminal-justice policies.
"Lack of prosecution," Rhodes said when Winn asked him to identify the root cause of the district's crime problems.
His assessment did not establish that every cited case resulted from a prosecutorial failure, but it reflected his central campaign argument.
Police Officers Need Support, Rhodes Argues
Rhodes said officers have told him they are frustrated when arrests fail to result in meaningful prosecution.
He alleged that some officers have become reluctant to make arrests because they believe prosecutors will not pursue charges.
That claim was based on conversations Rhodes reported and was not independently substantiated with department-wide data.
Winn agreed that police officers deserve public support and clear direction from elected leaders.
She praised the Tucson Police Department and Sheriff's Office personnel while criticizing the political officials overseeing public-safety policy.
The Board of Supervisors Has Limited but Real Influence
Rhodes acknowledged that county supervisors do not directly decide which criminal cases prosecutors file.
Nevertheless, the board influences county budgets and can communicate priorities to other public officials.
He argued that supervisors should use their positions to demand better responses to violent crime.
In his view, Cano has not done enough to highlight serious incidents or advocate changes.
Rhodes said residents are frustrated by what they perceive as silence from their elected representative.
Rhodes Criticizes Cano's Public Relations Efforts
Rhodes described an incident in which Cano delivered pizza to sheriff's deputies following a law-enforcement response to a shooting-related event.
Rhodes said the gesture occurred months after the incident.
He also criticized Cano for bringing news media along.
For Rhodes, that made the visit appear more like a political publicity opportunity than a spontaneous expression of gratitude.
"If you want to genuinely say thank you to somebody, you don't bring the media with you to do it," Rhodes said.
Winn agreed that elected officials should demonstrate support through policy and service rather than public appearances alone.
The discussion did not establish Cano's actual motives, but Rhodes said he considered the episode emblematic of the difference between political promotion and substantive leadership.
Roads, Crime and Business Development Form Rhodes' Three-Part Agenda
When Winn asked Rhodes to identify the district's three largest problems, he offered a straightforward answer.
Road conditions.
Crime.
And the lack of new business development.
He argued that the problems reinforce one another.
Poor roads and public-safety concerns make a community less attractive to investors.
Without new businesses, the district loses opportunities for employment and economic growth.
Businesses Notice the Condition of Their Surroundings
Rhodes said he had spoken with commercial lenders, developers and real-estate professionals who considered opportunities in Tucson.
According to Rhodes, some potential investors became discouraged after seeing deteriorating roads, vandalism, homelessness and drug-related activity.
He claimed that multimillion-dollar projects had been abandoned or redirected because of those concerns.
Those accounts were his descriptions of conversations with industry contacts rather than documented investment decisions presented during the discussion.
Nevertheless, he argued that public safety and infrastructure are prerequisites for sustainable growth.
"You can't get number three unless you fix number one and number two," Winn said.
Rhodes agreed.
Economic Development Requires More Than Spending Promises
Rhodes criticized Cano's frequent references to investing in the district.
He argued that government spending does not automatically resolve structural problems.
For Rhodes, improving public safety and maintaining roads should be the first priorities.
Those conditions can make private investment more attractive without government attempting to finance every development itself.
He believes District 5 needs a supervisor focused on those basic responsibilities.
Proposition 425 and the Data-Center Moratorium Become Campaign Issues
Rhodes also criticized Cano's support for Proposition 425.
The ballot measure would permanently increase Pima County's constitutional expenditure base and expand the county's legal spending authority.
Winn referred to estimates suggesting the measure could provide approximately $630 million in additional annual spending capacity.
That figure was discussed as a projection of increased authority, not an automatic tax increase or a requirement to spend the entire amount.
Rhodes argued that the county should establish stronger financial discipline before seeking such a substantial expansion.
The Data-Center Moratorium Raises Property-Rights Questions
Rhodes also objected to Pima County's temporary moratorium on data-center development.
He characterized the measure as unlawful.
The county's legal authority has been contested, and the discussion did not establish a final judicial determination.
Rhodes nevertheless argued that the moratorium could discourage investment.
Businesses considering construction need predictable land-use rules and infrastructure policies.
He believes sudden restrictions create uncertainty that can harm economic development.
For Rhodes, the moratorium and Proposition 425 represent what he views as a larger problem: county government expanding its authority while failing to deliver measurable improvements in basic services.
Rick Shafton: American Elections Have Become More Ideological and Less Tribal
National political consultant Rick Shafton joined Winn to examine the broader election environment.
Shafton has worked in numerous political campaigns and brings a strategic perspective shaped by years of experience.
He argued that American political parties have changed substantially.
In earlier generations, partisan affiliation was often connected to family tradition, religion, geography and cultural identity.
A household might vote Democratic or Republican because its members had always done so.
Changing parties could feel like abandoning a family tradition.
Today, Shafton believes political affiliation is increasingly determined by ideological differences.
"The two parties used to be ... about culture," he said.
"Now it's about issues."
Conservative Democrats and Liberal Republicans Have Become Rarer
Shafton argued that relatively few conservative Democrats or liberal Republicans remain influential within their parties.
He believes primary-election pressures have encouraged candidates to adopt positions more closely aligned with their party's ideological base.
In his assessment, moderate or conservative Democrats face particular difficulty winning competitive Democratic primaries.
Winn agreed, saying she had observed Arizona Democrats moving toward more progressive candidates and policies.
Both interpreted the trend as evidence of growing polarization.
Private Opinions and Public Campaign Messages May Differ
Shafton claimed some Democratic officials privately agree with conservative arguments but feel pressured to adopt more progressive language in public.
He suggested that political incentives can produce messages candidates do not entirely believe.
Winn said she had encountered Democrats who expressed frustration with their party's direction.
She argued that dissatisfaction might create opportunities for voters to cross party lines.
Shafton was more cautious about assuming those private disagreements would translate into election results.
The important question, he maintained, is which voters actually participate.
Shafton Explains Why Recruiting Serious Candidates Is Difficult
Shafton argued that political office often requires significant personal sacrifice.
Members of Congress earn substantial salaries by ordinary household standards, but the jobs involve demanding schedules, travel and public scrutiny.
He cited congressional compensation of approximately $174,000 annually.
For candidates with established careers, running for office may mean accepting professional and financial disruption.
Geography Adds to the Burden
Shafton described the challenges facing representatives from geographically large states.
A member living near Phoenix or Tucson may have relatively convenient air-travel options.
Someone living in a rural community can face a much longer journey before even reaching an airport.
Congressional responsibilities also require regular trips to Washington, constituent meetings and public appearances.
The demands can discourage qualified people from seeking office.
Financial Disclosure Requirements Can Deter Candidates
Shafton also noted that candidates must disclose certain financial interests.
People accustomed to private business careers may be uncomfortable making information about stocks, investments and real estate available to the public.
He described encountering potential candidates who became less enthusiastic when they understood those obligations.
For Shafton, the result is a political recruitment problem.
People with substantial professional experience may decline to run, while others more comfortable with political activism pursue those positions.
Shafton Sees an Opportunity for Andy Biggs in Arizona's Governor's Race
Winn asked Shafton about recent polling in Arizona.
He declined to discuss specific polling data.
"I don't want to talk about any polling I've done," he said.
But he was willing to offer his broader assessment.
He believes Republican gubernatorial candidate Andy Biggs has a stronger opportunity to defeat Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs than some observers assume.
"I think that Andy Biggs has a better shot than people think," Shafton said.
He also characterized Hobbs as politically vulnerable.
Shafton Says Hobbs Has Significant Political Negatives
Shafton argued that Hobbs faces criticism over her governing record and partisan approach.
He believes the Biggs campaign understands the political environment and has a plausible path to victory.
Winn agreed.
She described Hobbs as prioritizing partisan objectives over the needs of ordinary Arizona families.
Her criticism included the governor's relationship with local Democrats and disputes involving policy decisions.
Shafton did not provide polling percentages to support his assessment.
Instead, he emphasized the importance of turnout and the candidates' campaign strategies.
Arizona's First Lieutenant Governor Election Adds Another Dimension
Winn discussed Republican lieutenant governor candidate Sina Kerr, who is running alongside Biggs.
The election represents Arizona's first statewide contest under its new lieutenant-governor system.
Winn praised the pairing.
She also discussed the political controversy surrounding former Mesa Mayor John Giles, whom she characterized as a Republican aligned with Democrats.
Winn argued that Hobbs' relationships with some Republican figures had not produced the bipartisan appeal the governor hoped to achieve.
She also suggested that Tucson Mayor Regina Romero had been interested in the lieutenant-governor position.
For Winn, the selection of a running mate was another example of divisions within Arizona's Democratic political establishment.
Biggs' Southern Arizona Connections Could Matter
Winn emphasized Biggs' ties to Pima County.
She described him as having been born and raised in the area and connected with the University of Arizona.
She said he had made frequent campaign appearances throughout Southern Arizona.
For Winn, that demonstrated a willingness to engage with voters in a county where Republicans often struggle to win majorities.
Shafton agreed that candidates need to connect with voters.
But he cautioned against relying too heavily on biography.
Voters Care More About Issues Than Personal History
Shafton criticized campaign advertisements built around a candidate's childhood, family story or education.
He believes those messages frequently fail to explain what the candidate intends to accomplish.
"The only thing they care about ... is what's in their self-interest," he said of voters.
His point was that voters want answers about problems affecting their lives.
Will taxes increase?
Will neighborhoods become safer?
Will businesses create jobs?
Will schools improve?
A candidate's personal story can provide context, but Shafton does not believe biography should replace policy.
Winn jokingly defended the University of Arizona's importance to Tucson residents.
Shafton acknowledged the local loyalty but argued that shared sports allegiances rarely determine the outcome of a serious election.
Eli Crane and Arizona's Competitive Congressional Races
Winn expressed strong support for Congressman Eli Crane, who is running against Democrat Jonathan Nez.
She characterized the race as another contest between competing political philosophies.
Winn praised Crane's congressional performance and his connections with Arizona.
She also described Shafton as involved in efforts supporting Crane.
Shafton did not provide extensive specific polling information for the race.
Instead, he returned to his larger argument about candidate messaging and turnout.
Republicans Need a Reason to Participate
Shafton argued that campaigns must explain what voters will gain from electing their candidate.
He criticized advertisements that emphasize personal identity or life experiences without addressing public policy.
Voters may appreciate a candidate's accomplishments.
But appreciation does not necessarily translate into votes.
Shafton believes successful campaigns must connect issues with voters' daily lives.
That becomes especially important during midterm elections, when participation is typically lower than in presidential years.
Juan Ciscomani's Reelection Could Depend on Pima County's Margins
Winn asked Shafton about the Sixth Congressional District contest between Republican Juan Ciscomani and Democrat JoAnna Mendoza.
Shafton characterized the race as close.
Winn said Ciscomani had historically performed better in the district's counties outside Pima County.
She identified Graham, Greenlee, Cochise and Pinal counties as important sources of Republican support.
The campaign's objective in Pima County, she argued, was not necessarily to win the county outright.
It was to reduce Democratic margins enough for Ciscomani's performance elsewhere to produce an overall victory.
Biggs Could Help Ciscomani Through Higher Turnout
Shafton suggested that Biggs might provide stronger support for down-ballot Republicans than Kari Lake had in a previous gubernatorial election.
He believes a competitive gubernatorial campaign can motivate voters who might otherwise skip congressional races.
Winn said Biggs and Ciscomani had been appearing together and supporting one another.
Shafton viewed that Republican unity as a positive sign.
He contrasted it with other regions where bitterness following primary elections has weakened party organizations.
Early Voting Looks Encouraging, but Election Day Remains Critical
Shafton said the early voting numbers he had seen appeared somewhat better for Arizona Republicans than in 2022.
But he cautioned that early participation does not settle the outcome.
The final margin depends on who votes during the remaining early-voting period and on Election Day.
Winn agreed.
She said Pima County's turnout was beginning to improve despite the complaints about missing ballots.
Her immediate goal was ensuring that voters who wanted to participate could obtain a ballot through the appropriate procedures.
Shafton Sees Possible Republican Opportunities in Governor's Races
Shafton argued that gubernatorial elections may offer Republicans better opportunities than some congressional contests.
His reasoning was that state races are often driven by conditions within individual states.
Voters may evaluate their governors according to taxes, public safety, education and economic performance.
National political arguments can still matter, but the governor's personal record may become decisive.
He believes that creates opportunities for a political party to win in states that usually favor the other side.
New York Could Produce a Competitive Governor's Race
Shafton identified New York as a possible Republican opportunity.
He suggested Bruce Blakeman might be able to defeat Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul.
Winn expressed enthusiasm about the possibility.
Shafton argued that some voters eventually become dissatisfied enough with the party governing their state to consider an alternative.
That does not require permanently changing partisan identity.
A Democratic voter may decide that a Republican governor deserves an opportunity to address problems.
The reverse can happen in Republican-leaning states.
For Shafton, the possibility of such shifts is one reason gubernatorial elections remain difficult to predict.
Winn Criticizes New York's Progressive Leadership
Winn discussed Mayor Zohran Mamdani and what she described as growing dissatisfaction with progressive policies in New York City.
She suggested some voters might be experiencing buyer's remorse.
Shafton was skeptical.
He argued that people already opposed to Mamdani might be the ones most vocal about dissatisfaction, while his original supporters could remain loyal.
Winn said she hoped voters would reconsider policies that were not producing the results they expected.
Her broader point was that political decisions should be judged by outcomes rather than ideological promises.
Shafton Questions the Republican Strategy in California
Shafton was much less optimistic about California.
He criticized the state's Republican Party for repeatedly selecting celebrity or media-oriented candidates rather than developing politicians with strong governing records.
He referenced Arnold Schwarzenegger and Larry Elder as examples of California's history of high-profile candidates.
He also criticized gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton.
Shafton did not believe Hilton had established the credibility necessary to win.
His comments about Hilton's motives and appearance were personal political assessments, not findings about the candidate's intentions.
Celebrity Recognition Is Not a Substitute for Governing Experience
Shafton argued that candidates known primarily for television or entertainment must demonstrate why voters should take them seriously as public officials.
He used Sonny Bono as an example of a celebrity who successfully transitioned into politics.
Bono had served as a mayor before entering Congress.
For Shafton, that local governing experience helped establish credibility.
His concern with celebrity candidates is that campaigns sometimes emphasize fame instead of policy knowledge or demonstrated public service.
Candidates Should Lead With What They Intend to Do
Shafton believes even well-known candidates should build campaigns around specific issues.
A former athlete should not rely primarily on athletic highlights.
A television personality should not assume a familiar face is enough.
Voters need to understand how the candidate would govern.
That principle informed Shafton's discussion of Arizona congressional candidate Jay Feely.
Jay Feely's Congressional Campaign Raises Questions About Candidate Branding
Winn asked Shafton about Jay Feely's race for the congressional seat previously held by David Schweikert.
Shafton acknowledged that he had not followed every detail of the campaign.
But he offered a broader warning about relying on sports credentials.
Feely's background as an NFL player provides name recognition.
That can help a campaign attract attention.
But Shafton argued that voters should view him as a prospective legislator rather than simply a former football player.
Athletic Success Does Not Automatically Establish Political Credibility
Shafton questioned advertisements emphasizing a candidate's sports career.
He believes those messages can unintentionally reinforce the idea that the person is primarily an entertainer or athlete.
A congressional candidate must demonstrate knowledge of public policy, government operations and the interests of the district.
Winn joked about the Arizona Cardinals' record.
Shafton returned to the central point: voters should know what the candidate intends to accomplish.
He again cited Sonny Bono as an example of someone who moved beyond celebrity identity by establishing a record in public office.
For Shafton, that is the distinction between a famous person seeking office and a serious candidate for government responsibility.
Texas Could Be Another Test of Republican Turnout
Winn also raised the Texas contest involving Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico.
She expressed personal support for Paxton while acknowledging that the race had become contentious.
Shafton said he believed Talarico still had ground to make up.
But he cautioned that turnout would determine the result.
Paxton's reputation inspires strong reactions among voters.
For Shafton, that creates uncertainty because enthusiasm and opposition can both influence participation.
Winn said she hoped conservative voters would turn out rather than allow dissatisfaction or internal disagreements to produce a Democratic victory.
Shafton Warns Republicans May Lose Some Recent Hispanic Support
One of Shafton's more significant electoral concerns involved Hispanic voters.
He believes Republicans may be unable to maintain the level of support they received in the previous presidential election.
He described earlier Republican performance among some Mexican American voters as approaching 45 percent.
For the approaching midterms, he suggested support might return closer to 25 or 30 percent.
Those numbers were his political estimates, not figures from a specific poll he presented.
"I hope I'm wrong on that," Shafton said.
He argued that any decline would require Republicans to make up the difference through turnout among other groups.
Demographic Gains Must Be Maintained
Shafton's concern was that political coalitions can change quickly.
Voters who support one candidate in a presidential election do not automatically become permanent members of that candidate's party.
Economic conditions, immigration policy, candidate quality and local concerns can all affect later choices.
He urged Republicans to recognize those potential changes rather than assume recent demographic gains will continue indefinitely.
For Winn, the immediate answer remained voter engagement.
She said Republicans in Pima County were contacting residents who had not previously participated consistently.
She also reported conversations with Democrats who said they were dissatisfied with their party's direction.
Some had reportedly changed their registration.
Others were considering voting differently without changing party affiliation.
Those accounts were anecdotal, but Winn viewed them as evidence that political persuasion remains possible.
Missing Ballots Remain Winn's Most Immediate Election Concern
As the election discussion concluded, Winn returned to the unresolved reports from Pima County voters.
She said more than 40 families had contacted her concerning missing ballots.
Some reported inaccurate addresses.
Others said they were no longer registered with the party they expected or were not recorded as requesting early ballots.
Winn disputed explanations suggesting the problems were primarily the result of voters moving.
According to her conversations with affected residents, many had lived at the same addresses for years.
She said the Republican Party was helping voters navigate the process and collecting information about the complaints.
Participation Must Continue While the Questions Are Investigated
Winn emphasized that the allegations should not become an excuse to stay home.
Voters who have not received ballots can contact the Recorder's Office and determine their available options.
They can request replacement ballots before the applicable deadline or visit authorized voting locations.
The broader investigation into missing ballots can continue separately.
For Winn, the priority was protecting the opportunity to vote.
She urged residents not to assume someone else would resolve the issue automatically.
Proposition 425 Adds Financial Stakes to the Election
Winn also emphasized that the November ballot contains important local propositions.
She strongly opposes Proposition 425, which would permanently expand Pima County's constitutional expenditure base and increase its legal spending capacity.
Her concern is that future supervisors could use that expanded authority to pursue greater expenditures, creating additional pressure for revenue.
The proposition would not itself impose an equivalent tax increase.
But Winn argued that voters should carefully consider the long-term financial consequences.
She described the measure as one of several decisions capable of affecting thousands of dollars in household expenses over time.
At the recent Beer and Ballots gathering at The Barnyard, Winn said residents had asked questions and taken campaign signs concerning the proposal.
She hoped to organize another gathering the following Tuesday.
Local School Propositions Will Also Require Individual Decisions
Winn discussed plans to examine a ballot proposition involving the Vail School District.
She explained that the Pima County Republican Party had taken a neutral position on certain school-district measures.
That neutrality did not mean the party had determined the proposals were good or bad.
It reflected the view that voters living within individual school districts should decide questions affecting their local schools.
Winn said she hoped to speak with a Vail representative to explain the proposition.
She compared the approach with previous discussions involving Tanque Verde schools.
For Winn, the goal was providing information while recognizing that school districts have different needs and financial circumstances.
Accountability Begins With Information, Participation and Results
The issues discussed across international affairs, local government and national elections were different in scale.
Ava Chen warned that Western countries have underestimated the political objectives of China's ruling party and should examine the relationships connecting commerce, political institutions and international organizations.
Jeff Rhodes questioned whether Pima County's current leadership has adequately protected public money, public safety and economic opportunity.
Rick Shafton argued that campaigns must focus on policies affecting voters rather than biographies, celebrity status or party tradition.
And Kathleen Winn continued working with residents who said election-administration problems were preventing them from receiving expected ballots.
Each discussion returned to the relationship between political authority and the people affected by it.
Public officials should be accountable for spending decisions.
Political allegations should be investigated according to evidence.
Voters should understand the issues and procedures governing their participation.
And candidates seeking office should explain how they intend to improve the communities they want to represent.
The November 3 election will not resolve every dispute involving international politics, government spending or election administration.
But it will determine which leaders receive authority to act on those issues.
For Pima County voters still awaiting early ballots, the most immediate step is to contact election officials, verify their registration information and use an authorized voting method.
The broader questions of government accountability will remain long after the ballots are counted.