Guests - Ava Chen, Betsy Smith
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Xi's Three Chess Moves, Putin's Purple Staircase, and What Happens in a Country That Defunds Its Police
Wednesday on Winn Tucson was two shows in one: China Watch Wednesday with Ava Chen unpacking the most consequential week in global geopolitics in years, followed by Smith and Winn with Betsy Brantner Smith on teen takeovers, a mosque shooting, an illegal alien on a shooting spree in Austin, and the ongoing decay that follows every city that decides law enforcement is the problem.
The common thread: decisions made at the top of power structures — whether in Beijing, Sacramento, or a Travis County courthouse — cascade downward until ordinary people pay for them with their safety, their freedom, and sometimes their lives.
Ava Chen: The Three Chess Moves on Taiwan, Xi's Failing Health, and What the Purple Staircase Really Meant
Ava Chen, co-host and member of the New Federal State of China, opened China Watch Wednesday with an intelligence briefing that cut through the public-facing pageantry of two back-to-back summits — Trump's departure from Beijing on May 14th and 15th, and Putin's arrival just days later — to the strategic reality underneath.
Xi Jinping's Three-Step Plan for Taiwan
What Chen laid out is not speculation. It is based on NFSC intelligence assessments going back months, and it describes a three-step plan Xi Jinping has been executing sequentially, with the timing tied to his own declining health.
Step One — Secure a Collaborator Inside Taiwan
This step is already complete. Chen Liwen, the leader of Taiwan's Kuomintang party — the opposition party to the currently governing Democratic Progressive Party — made an official visit to Beijing in April. Upon returning to Taiwan, her rhetoric shifted noticeably: she began emphasizing that people on both sides of the strait are of the same Chinese descent, that families are the same, that war should be avoided at any cost.
"She is selling the surrender," Chen said. "She is basically saying: if you truly love Taiwan, keep peace, say no to war. She positions herself as a peace seeker. This is exactly what Chamberlain was saying 80-some years ago."
The parallel is intentional and precise. Before any military move, the CCP needs a trusted political figure inside the target who will de-mobilize public resistance. Hong Kong fell this way — the National Security Law enacted in 2020 was preceded by years of internal erosion, with collaborators and appeasers doing the soft work before the hard power arrived.
"This is exactly the plan," Chen said. "Xi Jinping secured a collaborator from inside Taiwan. Because that's always how you want to subvert a regime — from within."
Step Two — Neutralize U.S. Intervention
Xi's second move requires something specific from the United States: a public statement that America does not support Taiwan's independence. If Trump had issued such a statement — or even implied it — Xi could weaponize it as propaganda inside Taiwan, feeding the collaborator's narrative and eroding the Taiwanese public's will to resist.
Trump gave him nothing.
"He kept it ambiguous," Chen noted. "He did not say anything. And by not saying anything, he said a lot."
Winn's framing: the unsaid was the message. A president who was unwilling to defend Taiwan would have said so, or deflected with diplomatic softness. Trump's deliberate silence — on the record, on Air Force One, in response to a direct question — left the answer undefined. Just as he refuses to tell the media whether he will bomb Iran, he refused to hand Xi a usable quote about Taiwan.
Chen pointed to the contrast in how Chinese state media covered the two visits. On Trump's arrival in Beijing: cameras stayed distant, positioned behind the motorcade. When he descended the aircraft staircase, the United States had brought its own — with English words printed on the side, because the Secret Service did not trust any equipment provided by the CCP.
When Putin arrived just days later: covered canopy on the staircase for maximum privacy, carpeted in purple — the color historically reserved for emperors and royalty in Chinese tradition. Not every head of state receives a purple runner. Putin did.
"Compare the two videos side by side," Chen said, pointing to her NFSC social media account where she posted them. "The devil is in the details."
Step Three — Purchase Putin's Support
Xi's third move was Putin's visit itself. With Trump having refused to surrender the ambiguity on Taiwan, Xi's final requirement was military and geopolitical cover: a commitment from Russia that if Xi moves on Taiwan, Russia will not side with the West.
The price for that commitment appears to be extraordinary. NFSC intelligence assessed that the Russia-China deal signed during Putin's visit may reach a trillion dollars — covering oil, gas, pipelines, technology projects, and direct financial enrichment of Putin's inner circle and family members.
"Russia's entire GDP is only about a trillion dollars," Chen said. "If you secure a trillion-dollar deal, you've essentially doubled their annual economic output. That's what Xi is offering Putin — to buy his loyalty."
The evidence was visible in the composition of Putin's delegation: his prime minister, deputy prime minister, eight cabinet ministers, and the CEOs of Russia's two largest state oil and gas companies. This was not a diplomatic photo opportunity. It was a business summit.
The 42 signed agreements and memorandums on "deepening strategic partnership" — which Western media reported as boilerplate diplomatic language — are, in Chen's assessment, the contractual architecture of a geopolitical alliance being purchased one billion dollars at a time.
Xi's Health: The Factor That Makes Everything More Urgent
One detail Chen brought that has not appeared in Western coverage: Xi Jinping's health is worsening, and the itinerary of Putin's visit contained anomalies that confirm it.
Xi did not attend the afternoon session with Putin. Premier Li Qiang hosted Putin through the afternoon while Xi was absent. The dinner banquet — which CCTV had set up, with tables visible in their footage — was never shown. There are no videos of the two leaders eating or toasting together.
"Xi missed the afternoon with Putin," Chen said. "Why? Because he needs a break. His health requires it."
The known conditions include cancer, neurological issues, blood disorders, and the lingering effects of a spinal injury suffered in his youth during the Cultural Revolution, when he was sent to rural China and struck by a tractor.
The strategic implications of declining health are significant. A leader who believes time is running out becomes more reckless, more willing to act before the window closes.
"Compounding with the fact that his health is worsening, this makes him more reckless and dangerous," Chen said. "This is probably why he is seriously considering moving on Taiwan."
The military evidence supports it: NFSC intelligence has confirmed that the Chinese military conducted a complete war simulation in the Qingdao area — attack drills, emergency response systems, warning system testing — all completed in recent months. The two most favorable windows for an amphibious landing on Taiwan are April to early June, and October-November. As of May 20th, the first window is closing rapidly.
"If he does not move in May or early June, Taiwan is safe for now," Chen said. "But we'll see how the powers play behind the scenes."
The Hunta Virus — and What NFSC Intelligence Knows
Before closing, Chen addressed a new pathogen drawing attention: the Hunta virus. She was careful to note that NFSC has no confirmed intelligence on whether it is CCP-engineered. What they do have, she said, is confirmation that it is not naturally occurring.
"The Hunta virus is man-made. That's our confirmed intel."
She did not speculate further, but placed the development in the broader context of the period: humanity is at a crossroads, the axis of CCP and Russian power is deepening, and weapons more dangerous than anything in the World War II-era arsenal exist in the hands of people who have publicly stated their intention to use them.
What Trump's Body Language Told the Room
Chen offered a final observation that cuts to the human dimension of geopolitics. In the videos from Beijing, Trump's face — beyond the required diplomatic smile on arrival — reads as unhappy. Not afraid. Not uncertain. Simply unhappy.
"Xi Jinping is very blunt, and he's trying to be bullying," Chen said. "What are you going to do? And Trump is not happy."
It is, she argued, exactly the right reaction. A man who returns from Beijing smiling broadly and declaring victory would be a concern. A man who returns with the visible weight of having looked an adversary in the eye and understood exactly what he was dealing with — and said nothing he didn't intend to say — is doing the job.
Her closing prayer was direct: for Trump and his administration, for Miles Guo's June 1st expected release, and for the world not to become the battlefield that Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin are doing the paperwork to create.
Betsy Brantner Smith: Teen Takeovers, the San Diego Mosque Shooting, Austin's Illegal Alien Shooting Spree, and the Nanos Story Going National
Betsy Brantner Smith — National Police Association spokeswoman, 29-year law enforcement veteran, currently driving through the red cornfields of Iowa — joined for Smith and Winn with several weeks of accumulated law enforcement stories and the kind of analysis that only comes from someone who has actually worked these streets.
She opened with a contrast that set the frame for everything that followed: Iowa. Red state. No homeless people stepping over needles. No ICE protest signs. No sitting congresswoman staging outrage over a DACA student's detention. Cities that work because they are governed by people who think cities should work.
The Teen Takeover Epidemic: Tampa vs. Washington, D.C.
Two incidents, two outcomes.
In Tampa, a teen takeover at a mall food court resulted in 22 arrests. In Florida, those kids will be prosecuted. That outcome is not complicated — Florida has law enforcement that is adequately staffed and prosecutors who use the law they were given.
In Washington, D.C.'s Navy Yard neighborhood, a similar teen takeover ended in a melee at a Chipotle, where a father clung to his young daughter while teenagers used high chairs as weapons. As of the broadcast, not a single person had been taken into custody.
U.S. Attorney Janine Pirro stepped in: if kids can be identified, and parents cannot demonstrate they knew their child's whereabouts, parents will be charged and fined. Brantner Smith's read: about time.
"Don't you think this is intentional?" she said. "You've had teachers encouraging kids to walk out of school. They're giving kids the message that this is an okay way to express yourself. Minors are still accountable. We just have to start standing up as a society and stop worrying about being called racist and demand that our justice system punish these people — or this is going to be a long hot summer for all of us."
Her diagnosis of the root cause was not poverty, boredom, or lack of recreational programming.
"You and I were teenagers. We raised teenagers. We have grandkids approaching that age. And why didn't we do this? Because we had jobs and chores and volunteer work and churches and family time. And our parents had control of us. To say this is because kids don't have anything better to do is just absurd."
The smartphone is the organizing tool. These events are coordinated entirely on social media. The solution is not a government program. It is parents removing smartphones or, at minimum, monitoring them with the same seriousness they would apply to any other potential source of harm.
"Delete the social media. Give them a flip phone. That would reduce these events by 50 percent."
Spencer Pratt: Truth as Political Weapon
Both Brantner Smith and Winn had been following the Spencer Pratt phenomenon in Los Angeles — an unconventional candidate for mayor who is not a registered Republican, has never met Trump, but has been using factual, targeted content on social media to expose the gap between Karen Bass's stated priorities and the visible reality of the city she governs.
"The funniest things are things that have truth in them," Brantner Smith said. "He loves his city. He's expressing what a lot of people in L.A. believe — they're tired of the crime, tired of the homelessness."
His latest video, titled "Hoes for Pratt," features working women in the city's less-celebrated neighborhoods explaining, with startling directness, that they simply want to do their work without stepping over homeless people or being chased by drug addicts — and that they intend to vote for change.
"Take that, Pima County," Brantner Smith said. "You've got women in L.A. who can manage to get to the polls."
Austin: The Shooting That Defund Made Possible
Austin, Texas — "a beautiful city in Travis County but really, really far left" — experienced 12 shootings in approximately 12 to 20 hours. Three juvenile offenders were running through south Austin shooting at people, at houses, and at two fire stations.
The oldest perpetrator: a 17-year-old named Christian Mondragon. He is in the country illegally. In January, five months before the shooting spree, he was arrested for stealing a firearm — from a gun store, not from a car or a family member. He was charged with a felony. Travis County District Attorney Jose Garza released him to the custody of his parents with no punishment.
Five months later, he was leading a group of juveniles on a multi-hour shooting rampage through Austin.
"He now has an ICE detainer and will be deported," Brantner Smith said. "But the whole city of Austin has been terrorized. Several people were injured. Many people could have died if these little idiots were better shots."
Austin was the first city in the United States to genuinely defund its police department following George Floyd's death in 2020 — despite the fact that Austin PD had nothing to do with that event. The department lost its specialty units, its community policing divisions, its staffing. They are still trying to claw back capacity. What that attrition produces is a district attorney like Garza — who Brantner Smith described as spending more professional energy putting cops in prison than putting criminals in prison — operating in an environment where the enforcement backstop is gone.
"While Adelita Grijalva and Yasmine run around the state of Arizona whining about ICE, these are the people ICE is trying to remove from this country. This is the case."
Graham Platner and the Maine Senate Race
Brantner Smith also flagged the Maine Senate race, where Democratic candidate Graham Platner — running against incumbent Susan Collins — had social media content surface showing him wishing for the capture and killing of a U.S. soldier being held by the Taliban. He also has a tattoo that has been characterized as a disguised Nazi symbol, which he defended by saying it was "part of military culture."
"He throws the military under the bus by saying they're somehow responsible for his Nazi tattoo."
He has been endorsed by Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. He is running on a platform that describes Trump's military as the enemy and positions himself as a champion of the radical left.
"If they elect this far-left person, Maine is going to be like California," Brantner Smith said. "Lost."
The San Diego Mosque Shooting: What the Manifesto Says
The San Diego Islamic Center attack — in which two teenage shooters killed a security guard and two others before turning their weapons on themselves — had been generating headlines, many of them inaccurate about the perpetrators' identity and ideology.
Brantner Smith offered a careful reading.
The mosque itself has a documented history: it was connected to the 9/11 hijackers and celebrated the October 7th massacre of Israelis. "Not to say they deserved to be shot up," she noted. "But this was not simply a peaceful place of worship by people who want to get along."
The two teenage shooters had been radicalized almost entirely online. They attended school virtually. They produced a 75-page manifesto before the attack. The manifesto described:
Hatred of Islam
Hatred of Jewish people
Hatred of Black people
Hatred of LGBTQ people
Hatred of MAGA and Trump supporters
Self-identification as incels — men who are involuntarily celibate and direct their resulting rage outward
They were not transgender. They were not MAGA. They were not right-wing extremists in any recognizable sense. They were radicalized — by online communities, by gaming platforms, by the algorithm-driven isolation that turns young men who feel invisible into young men who want to be remembered for violence.
"This is how they decided to end their young lives," Brantner Smith said. "And this is so incredibly sad. But we cannot let people blame Republicans. We cannot let people blame MAGA for two lunatics."
Her law enforcement diagnosis was precise. One of the mothers noticed her son acting strangely, checked the household guns, found some missing, and called the San Diego Police Department concerned that her son might be suicidal and armed.
That call sat in a queue for over two hours.
"Just like calls do at the Tucson Police Department," she said. "My son is suicidal and he stole some of my guns — and that sat in queue for over two hours."
San Diego PD is short-staffed. The defund-the-police movement's most enduring legacy is not lower police budgets on paper. It is the hollowing out of the workforce — officers who left, recruits who never applied, positions that went unfilled for years.
"Nine out of every ten police departments in this country is short-staffed. Including our police department in Tucson. This is one of the legacies of the defund-the-police movement, one of the outcomes of the vilification and demonization of the American law enforcement officer since the death of George Floyd."
The call that might have prevented three deaths sat in a queue. Because there was no one to take it.
Nanos Goes National: The New York Post Is Paying Attention
Brantner Smith closed with a development that had just occurred: she had spent an hour on the phone with the New York Post briefing them on the details of the Nancy Guthrie disappearance and the Chris Nanos situation.
"They were absolutely blown away. They did not know about the recall. They didn't really know about him lying on his application. They didn't know about his past at the El Paso, Texas police department."
The story is going national. The 100-day mark in Guthrie's disappearance is approaching with no answers and no accountability. The perjury referral to Attorney General Chris Mays is sitting on her desk, waiting for action she has not yet taken.
"Call her office. Tell her you want her to act like the top cop of the state that she is and do something. Ask yourself: if I had lied on my job application — especially about the fact that I basically committed felonies — what would my employer do to me?"
The recall signature collection is ongoing. The perjury referral is in place. The New York Post is now involved. For a sheriff who has spent months assuming this would stay local, the walls are beginning to close in from multiple directions.
Winn Tucson airs Monday through Friday, 9 to 11 a.m., on KVOI 1030 The Voice.
China Watch Wednesday returns next week with Ava Chen from the New Federal State of China. Follow NFSC Speaks and Ava Chen's personal X account for side-by-side video comparisons of the Trump and Putin Beijing arrivals.
To sign the Nanos recall petition or contact the Pima County Republican Party: the recall effort is ongoing.
To call the Arizona Attorney General's office and demand action on the Nanos perjury referral: do it today.
Primary voter registration deadline: June 21. Early ballots: June 23. Primary: July 21.