Guests - Nils Grevillius, Joel Strabala, Rick Shafton
Fifty-some days out from Arizona's general election, Kathleen Winn framed her Thursday show around a single contention: that the Democratic Party is in the middle of a civil war with its own socialist wing, that the same fight is playing out from Wisconsin to Pima County, and that the opening it creates is Arizona Republicans' to seize — or squander. Three guests carried it: a crime expert and Army veteran on the ideology and the geopolitics behind it, the LD17 chair on the mechanics of turning out the vote, and a national political consultant on the races that will set the tone in November.
Nils Grevillius: The Democrats' Civil War, and the Long Game Behind It
Nils Grevillius — crime expert, author of The Last Lawman, and a U.S. Army veteran who served three tours in Korea — opened with a historical analogy for the Democratic Party's relationship with the Democratic Socialists of America. The party, he argued, now has "the same relationship with them that they had with the Ku Klux Klan from 1865 till about last week": it wants the numbers, the organization, and the votes, but keeps the movement at arm's length so it never has "simultaneous access to gasoline and matches." The oligarchs behind the party, he said — with certain exceptions — dole out only limited power at a time. Now the communists "see their own power and want to take over," and the party is pulling out the same tactics it normally reserves for Republicans in order to put them down.
His prime example was Wisconsin, where he said Francesca Hong lost a primary by roughly a percentage point after leading by some 20 points in Marquette University polling — a collapse he attributed to AOC and Bernie Sanders walking away from her and to a late flood of opposition research. Both he and Winn seized on reports of five missing thumb drives of data, which the losing faction is now citing as evidence the Democratic machinery may have "pulled a fast one." The irony, Winn argued, is that the left is now experiencing what Arizona conservatives were mocked for alleging in 2020 — "we were told we were election deniers" — and she pointed to the thousands of Maricopa voter records she said were stolen before that election, with no prosecution of the Fountain Hills man responsible.
Grevillius located the movement's roots in the middle class. Revolutions in Cuba and Iran, he argued, were middle-class projects, and today's American communists are "upper-middle-class kids with garbage degrees from elite" institutions — the children, in his telling, of both moderate Democrats and moderate Republicans. He tied it to a broader failure of historical memory, invoking Pol Pot ("everything I did, I did for my country"), Castro ("history will absolve me"), and the Western intellectuals who, he said, helped return Ayatollah Khomeini — whom he characterized as employing Leninist tactics — to Iran. His conclusion was that there is no middle ground to be had: "We can't compromise with communists."
On North Korea, drawing on his tours there, Grevillius characterized Kim Jong-un's missile launches as "shaking down their neighbors for food," noting that only about 8 percent of North Korea's land is arable and that the regime cannot feed itself. He didn't believe Kim intends to invade the South, but warned about leftists in Seoul's government who, he said, gloss over the North's history of mass executions. He turned repeatedly to China as the actor "pulling the strings" — arguing the U.S. missed its chance to realign the relationship around 9/11, when China was becoming "our de facto federal reserve," and that Nixon should have domesticated the energy supply in 1973 rather than tying the country to Middle Eastern oil and the conflicts that followed. China, he said, has deeper tentacles into Iran than has been obvious.
His most extended riff was on artificial intelligence, which he compared to oil refineries a century ago — a piece of commerce with real risks that the country nonetheless cannot forgo. On the upside, he cited AI's power to accelerate biomedical research, bringing drugs to market in a fraction of the time. On the downside, he sketched darker uses: psychological-warfare operations that flood an adversary's media to erode confidence in its economy and institutions, and speculative bio-threats engineered to manipulate brain chemistry. His bottom line was that data centers are a competitive necessity — refusing them, he said, would be "just as idiotic as having oil refineries in Riyadh and not in California, yet expecting gasoline to be sold for 80 cents a gallon." Winn seized on the analogy to preview her opposition to Proposition 425, arguing the county overtaxes residents while chasing failed policies.
On the local and national politics, Grevillius and Winn agreed the answer is action over commentary — "you don't fight back on Facebook." He argued the national GOP is content to be "the tackling dummy for the Democrats," singling out Senate leadership, and characterized the late John McCain as, in his view, one of the Democratic Party's greatest assets — a framing Winn extended to Cindy McCain's endorsement of Katie Hobbs, while noting Meghan McCain has backed Andy Biggs. On the CD6 race, both argued that Juan Ciscomani's opponent, whom Grevillius called an extreme socialist, will struggle in a border district beset by drug trafficking, homelessness, and rising crime. He warned against the sabotage of "vacation brain" after elections, and both stressed that money and turnout — not social-media posturing — decide races. Winn also flagged, and Grevillius agreed, the coordinated bot activity attacking Ciscomani online, designed to make his supporters feel outnumbered.
Grevillius offered pointed characterizations of several Democratic figures — describing Senator Ruben Gallego as closely tied to former Rep. Eric Swalwell, whom he called a longtime CCP asset — and argued members of his own California congressional delegation are "CCP, if not CCP adjacent," pointing to Chinese nationals he said are pushing American students out of elite universities and to the broader pattern of establishing citizenship through green cards. His book, The Last Lawman: True Stories of a Private Detective, is available on Amazon.
Joel Strabala: Register by October 5th, and the Homeless-Spending Question
Joel Strabala — LD17 chair and a member of the Pima County Election Integrity Commission — returned with the deadline that framed the whole segment: the last day to register to vote, or to fix a registration, for the November general election is Monday, October 5th. He had spent the day calling voters who reached out on primary day to set up appointments to get them back on the active early voting list or to correct party affiliations changed without their knowledge. His plea was to treat it like an August errand rather than an Election Day emergency: "You don't normally file your taxes ahead, but take care of your voter registration right now." The Pima County GOP will post a countdown clock at PimaGOP.org.
Strabala confirmed the November ballot will be a single page, front and back, even with all its propositions, and that every voter receives one tailored to their congressional district, legislative district, and school board. He previewed the show's plan to break down each ballot measure once the final list is set, and to cover the roughly six or seven school-board races across Amphi, Vail, Catalina Foothills, Tanque Verde, Marana, Oro Valley, and Tucson — races both he and Winn stressed are consequential for how districts spend money and educate students.
The segment's policy centerpiece was homelessness spending. Winn cited county figures showing roughly $683,000 spent clearing 594 encampments, with trash left behind and, in her framing, no dent in the underlying problem. Strabala agreed the county is "closing the camps and relocating them" without addressing root causes — an "out of sight, out of mind" approach. He noted Tucson, which represents a large share of the county's population, publishes no hard data on its own homelessness spending, which he called troubling. His prescription tied to the top of the ticket: a governor who, unlike what he described as Hobbs's Newsom-style expansion of homelessness and drug dysfunction, would send state help — and, locally, a second conservative vote on the Board of Supervisors in the person of Jeff Rhodes in District 5. He credited Supervisor Steve Christy as the board member who "typically votes against some of the nonsense."
On the state of the race, Strabala argued the "socialist thing" has been overplayed as a threat and that Republicans are the better alternative — patriots opposed to a Democratic Party drifting toward what he called manifestos "diametrically opposed" to the Constitution. He pointed to rising Republican and independent registration and falling Democratic registration, and made a direct appeal to "middle of the road" and conservative Democrats leaving their party "in droves." He walked through the LD17 ticket — Chris King for Senate, incumbent Rachel Keshel and John Winchester for the House, with the aim of unseating Kevin Volk in a district he called conservative on paper — and noted Senator Vince Leach is retiring after serving the state well. He also flagged a new state law allowing the county party to bundle donations for the governor, attorney general, and secretary of state races, directing donors to the PimaGOP.org donate button.
When Winn asked directly whether Pima County is business-friendly, Strabala didn't hesitate: "No." Both tied the county's crime, drug, and homelessness problems together as "the same problem" — a failure to prosecute criminals and support law enforcement — and returned to the through-line. "Do you know what changes that?" Winn asked. "Voting. People voting."
On a claim from the prior guest that Hobbs had taken money from the cartels, Winn was careful to draw a line: "I don't want to make that allegation without proof, but I'm confident it's coming."
Rick Shafton: Reading the Fall Races
Rick Shafton — a national political consultant Winn calls her guide to races around the country — closed the show with a tour of the contests he thinks will set November's tone, beginning with Wisconsin. His read on Francesca Hong's collapse was blunt: "She did it to herself with stupid comments." He doubted it was the RNC that released the opposition research, crediting Democrats themselves with deciding "this woman's a nut" and dropping the material where Fox News would amplify it back into the left-wing networks. He argued the swing — 20 points in the final seven days — is the kind of late movement primaries routinely produce, and hoped Republican Tom Tiffany, whom he'd found reasonable that morning, could capitalize; he recalled Scott Walker's strong record as governor and the difficulty of getting reelected after a presidential run.
Shafton drew a contrast he returned to throughout: Democrats are ruthless about winning and "will throw anybody overboard," while "Republicans, we stick with our losers." His example was Ohio's Max Miller, whom he said carries electability problems from public accusations — including from his ex-wife, the daughter of a Republican U.S. senator — and who, unlike a North Carolina candidate who stepped aside, is past the point of exiting his race.
On South Carolina, Shafton predicted Ralph Norman would rout Darlene Graham Norman — Senator Lindsey Graham's sister — in their runoff. He argued that filling the remainder of a term was fine but didn't entitle her to the seat, and described how party operatives, sensing Norman's momentum despite a Trump endorsement of Graham, would stampede toward the likely winner. He predicted Trump would issue a face-saving dual endorsement by week's end.
On Maine, Shafton called Susan Collins's seat a toss-up, citing a Fox News poll showing her down two, but argued Republicans are at their low point before the real campaign begins after Labor Day. His framework, drawn from his years working the Democratic side, was that a fall campaign is less about persuading swing voters than about turnout: energizing the people who voted for Trump to come out for a down-ballot governor's race, while the other side simply needs to keep them home. He warned that the Democrats' method is to demoralize the opposition — and that Republicans lose when their own voters sit out over a primary grudge or a lieutenant-governor pick like John Giles, whom both dismissed as a Democrat who registered independent.
Shafton's larger argument was that the Democratic Party has changed beyond recognition. He recalled running a Democratic primary 20 years ago with "conservative Democrats putting taxpayers first" as the slogan — a campaign he said would be impossible today, because no one would believe a Democrat could be conservative and Republicans would never cross over to vote in the primary. He argued Hobbs "cannot distance herself" from the DSA "because she is one of them," and predicted she would govern like other left-wing figures if handed the legislature. He made the affordable-housing fight a centerpiece, framing it as a potent issue for second-generation Americans who bought a home and a piece of land and don't want a housing project next door: "I worked hard... and now somebody's going to go stick a housing project there."
He and Winn agreed the Republican message for the fall has to be simple and singular — a clear case for why voters need to turn out. "Here's why you need to vote," Shafton said. "That's the whole campaign." On Texas, he doubted Democrat James Talarico could beat Ken Paxton or Greg Abbott, comparing him to Beto O'Rourke, and noted Paxton's record-breaking fundraising quarter mattered little in a race already saturated with money. His closing counsel matched the show's refrain: Republicans are competitive on the generic ballot and holding their own, but the campaign that turns out its own voters — and demoralizes the other side — is the one that wins.
Winn sent listeners toward Friday with the reminder that has closed the show all season: check your registration now, don't wait for a ballot that may not come, and understand that this election, decided down the ballot, is the one that sets Arizona's direction.