Guests - Rick Shaftan, Joel Strabala

Oct 23

New York Mayoral Race Analysis: A Conversation with Political Consultant Rick Shaftan

The New York City mayoral race has entered its critical final phase, with a debate last night showcasing the three main candidates. Political consultant Rick Shaftan offered his analysis on the current dynamics between Andrew Cuomo, Jumaane Williams (Mandami), and Curtis Sliwa.

According to Shaftan, while media reports highlighted Sliwa's one-liners, he remains the third candidate in what's essentially a race between Mandami and Cuomo. Despite the president weighing in and suggesting Curtis should exit the race, Sliwa remains a factor.

"Cuomo in the first debate was very meek and didn't sell himself, but last night he really hit back hard," Shaftan observed. The question remains whether it's too little, too late.

The race dynamics are complicated by several factors. First is the early voting already underway in New York. Second is voters' personal distaste for Cuomo and whether they can overcome it to defeat Mandami. There's also a contingent of Republicans who perversely support Mandami, believing his victory would damage Democrats nationally.

"Cuomo is clearly the underdog. He lost the Democratic primary," Shaftan explained. New York's electoral system allows candidates to run on multiple ballot lines and as independents, which has created this three-way contest where all candidates have access to city public financing.

The public financing system itself plays a role in keeping Sliwa in the race. "Curtis isn't getting out because he has millions of dollars in public funds, and his consultants want to spend that money," Shaftan noted. "They don't want to give it back." The stringent restrictions on how these funds can be used create a complex system that essentially provides full employment for political consultants, who have little incentive to advise dropping out with "a big payday coming up in the next 10 days."

An interesting demographic split has emerged in the race. "When you look at people born in the United States who live in New York City, Cuomo's winning easily. When you look at the immigrants, Mandami's hitting 62% of the vote," Shafton said.

Cuomo's candidacy is fundamentally flawed while Mandami has cultivated a devoted following. "Mandami has a following on the left the way someone like Trump has a following on the right," Shaftan compared. "A lot of young people, young immigrant-type third-worlders—they just worship this guy. They think he's really good."

This enthusiasm gap explains much of the dynamic. "He has an enthusiastic vote. No one voting for Cuomo is enthusiastic about it. They just want to stop Mandami," Shaftan said. "When you hear the word 'stop,' fill in the name, that person's probably going to win."

As for whether Sliwa dropping out would change the outcome, Shaftan believes it's too late. "The dropping out time should have been two months ago, and no one was willing to do that." Despite being a Republican, Shaftan admitted he would likely vote for Cuomo if he were in New York since "he's got the best chance."

Mandami's policy positions are concerning to Shaftan. "He's not hiding who he is at all. He hates police, he wants to do a free bus system." This prompted a tangential discussion about Tucson's own free bus system, which Winn criticized as problematic, citing "10 stabbings, shootings, whatever since April" on the city's buses.

The Liberal Housing Agenda and Political Messaging

The conversation shifted to broader policy trends among Democrats, particularly around housing. "The theme of the liberal—and this is beyond liberal, this is extremism—is to do free housing, to do low-income housing," Shaftan observed.

Drawing from his experience growing up in New York, Shaftan noted how housing projects had historically "totally destroyed neighborhoods." He theorized that housing becomes a political issue at predictable times in the market cycle.

"When was housing an issue? The mid-80s, the mid-2000s, now. Whenever you get this, because real estate has gotten artificially high, rents are high, everything's high, people are talking about housing," Shaftan explained. "When housing prices drop, nobody talks about housing."

The partisan divide on the issue is clear in Shaftan's analysis. "Almost all these people are Democrats. Republicans are concerned about taxes and traffic and other things."

Shaftan criticized Republicans who try to adopt traditionally Democratic issues. "The problem Republicans have is thinking, 'Oh, if we talk about the Democrats' issues, they'll vote for us.' That doesn't happen," he said. Instead, Republican voters become disillusioned: "Our people are like, 'I thought you were against low-income housing. If you're for it, I'm not going to vote for you.'"

The discussion briefly touched on political advertising, with Shaftan criticizing a weak Virginia governor's race ad he saw despite being in North Carolina. "Messaging is everything," he emphasized before a commercial break.

Tucson's Political Landscape: The Fight Against Progressive Policies

The conversation returned with a focus on Tucson's local political situation. Joel Strabala, a Republican city council candidate, joined the discussion to talk about the city's housing policies.

Strabala expressed concern about the city council's recent declaration of a housing crisis, comparing it to the COVID-19 emergency declarations. "They don't want to let a crisis go to waste," Strabala said. "They're going to use it to implement their policies that they cannot get passed through direct votes of the citizens."

The declaration allows the council to bypass normal procedures like zoning changes and public hearings. "It is a power grab," Strabala explained, "to implement the progressive policies with regard to housing that have failed all over this country."

Strabala pointed to failures of similar policies in other cities: "San Francisco, Seattle, Portland, New York... has this type of policy ever worked?" He criticized the plan to convert a hotel into a homeless shelter without proper infrastructure or planning.

The core issue, according to Strabala, is that these policies aren't actually designed to help those they claim to serve. "Most of these programs don't actually help the people they claim to help," he said. "The vast majority of homeless, about 85%, have drug addiction, have mental health problems. And what the left wants to do is just give them free housing."

This approach fails to address underlying issues. "They don't have the motivation to help themselves because they're not being treated for addiction, they're not being treated for mental health," Strabala noted. Instead, progressive policies are "actually hurting the people they claim to help."

Election Strategy and the Importance of Voter Participation

The conversation turned to upcoming elections and voter mobilization strategies. Strabala emphasized the importance of Republican turnout in the city council race.

"Get your ballot in the mail," Strabala urged. "Don't waste your vote. Don't protest vote. Don't skip voting." He stressed that every vote matters in municipal elections where turnout is typically low.

Winn echoed this urgency, warning that the council's housing emergency declaration was just the beginning if they aren't checked by new council members. "They're going to take it and run with it. They'll be rezoning properties and basically making a taking without paying property owners."

Joel Tolkoff, another Republican candidate, joined to discuss Proposition 417, describing it as "414 on steroids with respect to subsidizing social programs that claim they're focused on helping the homeless but aren't—they're just throwing money away and band-aiding the symptoms, not fixing the problem."

Winn provided critical voter information: "The last day to mail ballots is October 28th. After the 28th, please don't mail it because if it doesn't reach there, it won't work." Early voting ends October 31st, with Election Day on November 4th.

"Please let's have a positive outcome," Winn urged. "We have registered over 18,000 Republicans in Pima County. There is a trend happening here. We are fighting hard because the policies of the progressives are not working."

Winn criticized the council's approach to governance: "Hating the president is not a plan, and when you circumvent the authority of the voters, you talk about no kings, but then you make declarations of crime, make declarations of a housing crisis. What are the metrics for that?"

For those wanting to protect election integrity, Tolkoff directed listeners to "PIMAGOP.org and then click on a button that says 'Protect Our Elections and Volunteer Now,' where you can review the training and sign up for over 100 different shifts to observe the election process."

Looking Ahead: The Future of Tucson and Arizona

Winn emphasized the importance of the upcoming 2026 election cycle for Arizona. "We have to restore order and bring business back. We went from fourth in the nation to 47th," she lamented.

While acknowledging President Trump's impact on border security, Winn pointed to ongoing local challenges: "Our city is not a cleaned up city. Our city has boarded up buildings. The downtown—we need to restore our downtown and start to renovate."

Winn stressed that without addressing the root causes, local problems will spread: "If we don't take care of it in Tucson, it spreads to Morana, spreads to Oro Valley, spreads to Vale, spreads to New York Mayoral Race Analysis: A Conversation with Political Consultant Rick Shaftan