Guests – Betsy Smith, Rob LaMaster, Seth Keshel
Wildcats, Criminal Enterprises, and Election Analytics: A Deep Dive into Arizona Issues
Basketball Update and Criminal Financial Operations
It's Thursday, and the Wildcats just crushed Utah yesterday with a score of 83 to 66. The team is now at 19-9 as we head into March and prepare for March Madness, which actually extends into April these days.
Meanwhile, significant law enforcement operations are taking place in Arizona that aren't getting enough attention. A recent raid in Maricopa County is tackling money laundering and criminal financial transfers.
Betsy Smith, spokesperson for the National Police Association, explains: "The Department of Homeland Security investigations division is starting to tackle money laundering and money transfers throughout our entire state. They executed 19 search warrants and have collected substantial data to analyze where this money came from, where it's going, and what laws have been broken."
While some critics claim these operations target migrants simply sending money home, Smith clarifies: "When you read about this investigation from the far left side, they make it sound like the Department of Homeland Security is trying to abuse migrants who are just trying to send money home. There's nothing illegal about wiring money unless you're wiring it for nefarious purposes—like drug cartels and human trafficking."
This operation builds on previous work started by former Attorney General Terry Goddard before Tom Horne, who established TRAC—a system that records money transfers over $500, accessible only to law enforcement for investigative purposes. TRAC was involved in this recent operation targeting 19 different money transfer locations in Maricopa County, resulting in 30 arrests with more processing underway.
The database has become an important tool for law enforcement nationwide, with over 20,000 agencies now using it. Since Donald Trump took office, usage of this database has increased exponentially to intercept criminal financial activity.
Smith emphasized the international connections: "Most of the components of fentanyl come from China into Mexico, where they're manufactured and then brought into the United States. This is a very complicated issue, and some migrant groups are probably upset because they're not getting their USAID money anymore."
The scale of the operation was significant, involving over 200 law enforcement personnel from multiple agencies. They seized records and made arrests focusing on large sums of money being sent to Mexico—activities that weren't investigated during the previous administration.
Make-A-Wish Arizona: 45 Years of Life-Changing Wishes
Rob LaMaster, Regional Director for Southern Arizona Make-A-Wish Foundation, shared insights about the organization's mission: "Together we create life-changing wishes for children with critical illnesses. Our vision is to grant the wish of every eligible child."
The entire Make-A-Wish phenomenon started in Arizona 45 years ago with one little boy who wanted to be a police officer. Arizona DPS made it happen, and after his passing, they decided to find other children with critical illnesses who needed their wishes granted. Today, there are 58 U.S. chapters and 44 international chapters.
In Arizona alone, nearly 8,500 wishes have been granted. Last year, the foundation granted 462 wishes in the state, with 20-25% of those in Southern Arizona. Make-A-Wish meets children wherever they are—whether in Douglas, Window Rock, Parker, Oro Valley, Tucson, or on reservations.
Contrary to common misconceptions, many Make-A-Wish children are not terminal. LaMaster explains: "What we love to call it now is a life wish, not a last wish. The only thing that's changed in how Make-A-Wish works in 45 years is medical science. Today, over 75% of our wish kids outlive their diagnosis and live long, happy, and productive lives."
Wishes can be transformative for entire families. LaMaster shared a story about a child named Camden who wanted to meet NASCAR driver Jeff Gordon: "His mother still says that sitting down at dinner at the hotel the day before his wish in Fort Worth was the first time the family had all been together sitting down for dinner since Camden's diagnosis. One parent was always with the two children at home and school while the other was with the wish kid at the hospital."
Those interested in supporting Southern Arizona Make-A-Wish can contact them at 520-731-9474 (731-WISH) or visit Arizona.wish.org.
Election Analytics and Forecasting with Seth Keshel
Seth Keshel, former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran, correctly forecasted a 312 to 226 electoral vote count in Trump's victory, accurately predicting all 56 electoral races.
Keshel explains that there are 56 races for electoral votes, not just 50: "You have 50 states and they have a statewide vote worth a predetermined amount of electors. In Arizona, it's 11. But 48 states are winner-take-all. Then there's Washington DC, and Nebraska and Maine split their electoral votes. So that's 56 races total."
His methodology focuses on historical patterns rather than polling: "The best indicator of future performance is what's happened in the past. I have a skill for pattern analysis, which is how I can recognize suspicious voting numbers."
Keshel looks for logical inconsistencies in election predictions: "Whenever people are running polls showing Trump winning Nevada but losing Arizona, I put zero value to that. Never in the history of presidential politics has Nevada backed the Republican nominee for president when Arizona went Democrat."
The New York Times even published a piece about Keshel's methodology before the election, with one critic stating, "If he happens to get anything right, it will be because of luck." Keshel then proceeded to correctly predict all 56 races.
Former Speaker Newt Gingrich found Keshel's work valuable and featured him on his podcast "Newt's World." Gingrich even used Keshel's numbers to debunk a poll showing Harris ahead in Iowa by 3 points. Trump ultimately won Iowa by 13 points, just as Keshel's registration analysis predicted.
Looking ahead to the 2026 midterms, Keshel warns that historically, the president's party faces challenges: "The average loss for the president's party in midterms since 1934 is 27 seats. If that were to happen to the GOP, the Democrats would hold a majority in the House of 242 to 193."
Keshel advises Republicans to be strategic about open seats and primaries: "If you're going to be primarying incumbents, you need to make sure we're not running six guys. Republicans are very good at identifying a bad incumbent, but then running multiple candidates and splitting the vote, allowing the incumbent to hang on with 34%."
He predicts that despite midterm challenges, Republicans should maintain Senate control: "I think it's almost certain that Trump will have between 52 and 55 Senate seats going into the second half of his term."
On election integrity in Arizona, Keshel criticized Governor Katie Hobbs for vetoing a bill that would have implemented Florida-style election security measures: "Hobbs knows good and well the only way she's getting back in office is with election cheating, so there she goes vetoing the bill."
The vetoed bill would have included address verification requirements and expedited vote counting. Keshel argues: "What good does it do us if we speed up the count of fraudulent ballots? Florida cleaned up their mail system by requiring address verification and making voters request their ballots for each election."
Keshel believes mail-in balloting creates opportunities for fraud: "In Europe, many nations banned mail-in balloting decades ago because they were finding the dead were miraculously rising to vote. Mail-in balloting is a scam that robs the legitimacy of elections."
He concluded with his "mail-in challenge": "I will pay you 10% on my bet. If you trust mail-in balloting, put $500 in cash in an envelope addressed to yourself and put it in the mail. You get it back, you get 50 bucks. We'll see how many take that bet."